7 What Ifs About An Earlier WWI

Last week, George Dvorsky shared seven possible points of divergence for an earlier WWI. After reading an article I couldn't help but imagine what would happen if war actually did break out because of one of the many incidents shared by George. So I wrote them down and I am now sharing them with you.

Quick disclaimer: these aren't meant to be the absolute most plausible scenario that could have happened. These are just possible scenarios created over a weekend by someone with a lot of imagination and very little research. If you have your own ideas, please share them in the comments.

Lets begin...

#1: The War-in-Sight Crisis (1875)

Cooler heads do not prevail during the War-in-Sight Crisis and Britain, France and Russia decide they can't have peace with a united Germany. They are joined by Austria-Hungary, who want to get back at Germany for their defeat in the Austro-Prussian War. The Germans hold their own for several years, but eventually surrender against the combined forces of Europe. Germany is dismembered, although Prussia still maintains large parts of northern Germany. Prussia will try a couple more times in the future to unite Germany, but will always fail and always lose more territory in the process.

Today German nationalism is only really popular in the rump Prussia, with the other German states preferring their local identity over Pan-Germanism. This is important to their survival since the monarchist-clerical alliance led by the Kingdom France and the Imperial Federation of Austria don't want any trouble from that corner of the globe. They have enough trouble opposing the Anglo-American-Russian republican coalition, especially after their last attempt to reinstall the House of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha to throne of Britain failed miserably.

#2: The Fashoda Incident (1898)

An argument between the British and French commanders at Fashoda leads to the British commander being taken prisoner and shots being fired after British forces came to his rescue. Coupled with the heated rhetoric from both sides, war erupts between the two traditional rivals. Russia comes to the side of France, who signed a secret alliance with them earlier, as does Italy, who found this a good of chance as any to grab as much colonial territory as they could from Britain. Surprisingly, Germany and Austria-Hungary join on the side of Britain, who see France and Russia as greater threats to their sovereignty. Japan also joins the Anglo-German side, but just so they can swallow up as much French and Russian territory as they can. After years of war, the Anglo-Germans and their allies defeat the Franco-Russians and their allies. France and Italy lose much of their colonial empires, while Russia is forced to cede territory to its neighbors as well.

Decades later, right-wing governments come to power in France, Russia and Italy and try again for revenge in a Second World War. They actually managed to overrun Germany and Austria-Hungary, before a combined force of Britain, Japan and the United States breaks their hold over Europe, but not without copious amounts of nuclear weapons. Today Europe is still recovering from the nuclear onslaught it faced while the Anglo-American alliance fights for influence with the Empire of Japan. Thankfully, both sides in the struggle have seen the dangers of nuclear warfare and have agreed to limit their atomic arsenals...but not get rid of them entirely.

#3: The Russo-Japanese War (1904-05)

More British fisherman die during the Dogger Bank incident and it incites the British public to war. After the Royal Navy drives the Russian fleet back to the Baltic. France sides with Russia, but Germany and Austria-Hungary join on the side of Britain (Japan, meanwhile, couldn't be happier that Russia now has a war back east to deal with). The Anglo-Germans are eventually victorious, but leftist revolutions in Russia and France lead to the creation of Marxist governments in both countries. As soon as they secured their rule, both government began working together to undermine the power of imperialists who defeated them.

Eventually the Anglo-German alliance become fed up with all of the social unrest in their nations and colonies caused by the Franco-Russians and decide another war is in order to end their threat. Neither is prepared, however, for the amount of preparation France and Russia made for this moment and that, coupled with rebellions and general strikes behind Anglo-German lines, leads to a victory for the Reds. Marxism spreads across Eurasia and Africa, only contained by the American-Japanese alliance. That alliance is starting to fray at the edges, especially as the Reds use Japan's harsh treatment of its subject peoples as propaganda. Some American politicians and generals are beginning to think that it would be in their nation's best interest to incite a war between Japan and the Reds, but one where they sit out and rebuild the world afterwards.

#4: The First Moroccan Crisis (1905-1906)

In a surprising turn of events at the Algerciras Conference, German diplomats actually manage to come to an understanding with France and Russia, keeping Morocco independent, but open to all nations, while forming a new military alliance: the Quadruple Entente (Austria-Hungary was allowed in as well). Britain, finding itself suddenly isolated, rejects the decision at the Conference and, after a period of increased tensions, finds itself at war with all of Europe. With the Royal Navy bottled up at the Home Islands by Entente forces, the British watch in horror as their Empire is overrun. At the end of the war, all of British territory is divided among the Entente powers and their allies, except for Ireland, Canada, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand  The United States also invoked the Monroe Doctrine and occupied British territory in the New World to keep it from falling into Entente hands.

The defeat in the Great War led to a total collapse of British society. A long civil war ended in the rise of a totalitarian government that sought to isolate Britain even further from the world and control every aspect of its citizens lives. A cult of personality formed around the position of Grand Minister that was passed from father to son, while the British poured vast amounts of money into weapons programs, even if it meant their people starved. At first the rest of the world tried to ignore what was happening on Britain, but after evidence was uncovered that the British were selling weapons of mass destruction to other rogue nations, the world decided they couldn't ignore them any longer. In 1984, the Entente, along with America and Japan, invaded Britain and overthrew the government. The leaders were tried for humans rights abuses and international aid poured in to alleviate the suffering of the British people, but the indoctrination program of the government was so prevalent that many British citizens still backed their former rulers, leading to a long occupation by the international force that is still ongoing.

#5: The Casablanca Incident (1908)

Three German deserters from the French Foreign Legion are arrested by the French, but in the process one of them dies. The event leads to war between Germany and France, with Austrian-Hungary and Russia, joining their respective allies. Britain, however, decides to sit this one out and the war drags to a status-quo peace. Both Russia and Austria-Hungary collapse and shaky democracies arise in their successor states. Germany also becomes a constitutional monarchy, while France came under the control of a socialist government that seeks to disentangle themselves from world affairs. Deciding they couldn't handle the strain of maintaining their colonial empires, the exhausted powers give their colonies independence. The British aren't happy with decolonization, but nevertheless decide they don't want to fight long-drawn out colonial wars and free their colonies as well. Europe turns into a sleepy backwater where not much happens and, to be honest, the people like it that way.

The same can't be said about the rest of the world, Other powers tried to fill the power vacuum left by the Europeans and the increasingly isolationist Americans. Japan and India, which was never partitioned, fought several bloody wars over China, dividing that region between several tiny states. Africa also had several regional conflicts as the Brazilians and the united Arab state battled for influence. There is a growing fear that an Indian/Arabic alliance and a Japanese/Brazilian alliance could lead to another global war if something is not done soon.

#6: The Bosnian Crisis (1909)

Russia refuses to back down over the Bosnian annexation leading to war breaking out between the Entente and the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy). In a surprising turn of events, the Ottomans find themselves on the Entente side, although they don't profit much in the short-term from the victory over the Central Powers, but it begins a new era of peace and understanding between Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Meanwhile, both nations reform themselves from the inside. Russia becomes a constitutional monarchy and works to unify the Slavic people into a union that becomes Pan-Slavia. The Ottomans do the same, except they seek peace and unity among all sects of Islam. After making a deal with the secular Arabs, the Ottoman Empire is transformed into the Islamic Federation.

Although there was a few close war scares, the Russo-Islamic bloc has managed to stay at peace with the Western powers, even after decolonization set in and many Muslim majority nations joined the Islamic Federation. Even without major ideological differences, things aren't always peachy between the great powers, but they are more friendly rivals than outright enemies. A new age of imperialism, however, is beginning now that the crescent moon has been raised over the actual Moon.

#7: The Agadir Crisis (1911)

When the German warship Panther mysteriously blows up off the coast of Morocco, the French are blamed and war begins between the Triple Entente and Triple Alliance. The war in the west breaks down into bloody trench warfare, but on Christmas, a truce happens on one stretch of the front that soon spreads from the English Channel to Switzerland. The high commands are puzzled and then horrified as the truce continues to last in the days to come. Attempts to get the troops fighting again, ranging from officers shouting at subordinates to firing on their own men, incites all the soldiers to turn on their generals and politicians. A unified, international army spreads across the continent. Forces on the Eastern Front join in and even Britain falls when the Royal Navy mutinies in support of the rebels. A new democratic European Federation is established to ensure universal liberty, rights, and equality, and to share knowledge and resources in peaceful cooperation.

Although not all of the Federation's Utopian ideas stood the test of time, it still managed to prove their detractors wrong by surviving and thriving in the years to come. The question of what to do with their colonial empire led to the next evolution of the Federation. At first the colonies were administered as whole to benefit all Europeans, but when that seemed to go against the guiding principals of the Federation, the colonies were given the option to become full members in the Federation, transforming it into the United Federation of Earth. Although some former colonies did choose independence, many other joined and even some nations that were independent at the time requested membership.

Today the UFE is the world's largest, most populous and richest nation on the planet. They have led the world in space exploration as well, establishing bases as far out as the Asteroid Belt and nuclear powered ships are already venturing into the Outer System. There are few states that remain outside of the Federation, the largest being the paranoid and xenophobic United States, which has been the UFE's largest rival. Although increasingly isolated, they refuse to surrender to foreign scum and tell their people to trust the leadership and to ignore rumors that there 105 year old President actually died ten years ago. That is only just another lie from the evil one world government.

* * *

Matt Mitrovich is the founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update, a blogger on Amazing Stories and a Sidewise Awards for Alternate History judge. When not writing he works as an attorney, enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana and prepares for the day when travel between parallel universes becomes a reality. You can follow him on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. Learn how you can support his alternate history projects on Patreon.

The Russo-Japanese War – Alternatives

Guest post by Chris Nuttall.

"What this country needs is a short, victorious war to stem the tide of revolution."

V.K. Plehve, Russian Minister of the Interior
to General A.N. Kuroparfon

The first war to be fought completely within the 20th century, the Russo-Japanese war was a preview of the First World War and a harbinger of many of the troubles that would follow in the later years.  Despite the apparent simplicity of the conflict, there were wheels within wheels and the diplomatic state was very confused.  However, the conflict was one of the most decisive and unexpected victories that the world had ever seen, as, for the first time, an Asian state defeated one of the European great powers.

Quick bit of background first.  The Japanese had developed rapidly in the years after their ‘discovery’ and opening by Admiral Perry.  They had swiftly built up a small, but efficient army and navy that was a fair match for the European forces, although the Japanese could not hope to match the numerical superiority of the French, German or Russian armies.  The Japanese, therefore, decided to join the forces that were nibbling away at China and declared war in 1898, swiftly defeating the Chinese forces and occupying vital strategic points.  However, the European powers decided not to allow this upstart nation to keep its gains and an alliance of France, Germany and Russia faced down the Japanese and compelled them to return most of their gains.

Japan was humiliated by this exercise in naked power.  Despite her participation in the multinational force sent to relive besieged Peking during the Boxer Rebellion, in which she was treated as an equal for the first time, she still felt deep resentment at her treatment.  Forging an alliance with Britain, the Japanese prepared a surprise attack on the Russians.  For their part, the Russians were supremely confident of victory and expected the war to reforge the nation and the Tsar’s power.  However, the Russian incompetence, poor planning and logistic difficulties – not to mention social upheaval – allowed the Japanese to win the war.

That was not written in stone.  The Russians had countless chances to gain an advantage over the Japanese and a better diplomatic position.  There were proposals made by the commanding officers to the Tsar that the Tsar rejected, many of which would have strengthened the Russian position – and finally, there were a number of international incidents, which could have turned a small war into the first world war.

Possibly the first possible change in events – unless you don’t allow the war to happen at all – is the Japanese landings at Chemulpo.  The Russians became aware, at least at a local level, that the Japanese were landing, but they did nothing.  If the Russians had attempted to interfere with the landings, however, there is a good chance that they would succeed in preventing the Japanese from landing or at least slowing them down.  In which case there would be a good chance of winning the war, or buying time for the reminder of the Russian army to mobilise.

Another possibility comes from the early naval action at Port Arthur.  The Japanese successfully bottled up the Russian far eastern fleet there, but then managed to leave a possible threat behind them, meaning that they needed to keep their fleet near the Russian harbour.  If the Japanese had sunk the Russian fleet, however, there are two possibilities.  The first one is that the Russians would be discouraged from sending the Baltic Fleet halfway around the world and probable Japanese defeat when they ran out of supplies.  The second is that the Tsar might decide to make peace after the loss of the fleet.

After their successful landing, the Japanese advanced towards the Yalu River, where the Russians had encamped.  The Russians failed to detect the Japanese ‘spearpoint’ and therefore a small force had to fight off the main Japanese attack.  Unsurprisingly, they failed, while the Russians had not kept a reserve in place to seal up the gap.  This victory convinced the bankers in London and New York that the Japanese could fight and therefore allowed the Japanese to take out more loans.  If the Russians had stopped the Japanese here, or even delayed them for a time, it might have made the bankers and foreign governments more hesitant and made the Japanese economic problems worse.

As the Japanese army approached Liaoyang, it appeared that China might join the war on the side of the Japanese, eager for a chance at revenge against the Russians.  Just how strong this feeling was is unclear, although thousands of Chinese served with the Japanese, they were rarely in combat situations as combat troops.  If the Chinese government did join the war, they would help the Japanese out to some extent, even to supplying them with weapons they were either unwilling or unable to use themselves.  However, Chinese intervention would almost certainly mean French and British intervention, although French intervention would be difficult without British support.  I suspect that the British would pressure the Japanese to end the war at that point before the unequal treaty framework collapsed completely.

The single most tragic battle – both for the casualty lists and for the lessons for WW1 that were ignored – was the battle for Port Arthur.  The Russians had heavily fortified this fortress and expected it to be able to hold out for an indefinite period.  The Japanese expected to take it quickly, but lost thousands of men on useless attacks before managing to gain a commanding position.  This delay cost the Japanese the chance to capture the Russian fleet and the possibility of extra reinforcements for the advance to Mukden.  There are really two possibilities here: if the fortress had fallen quickly, the Japanese might have captured much of the Russian fleet and then had extra forces to push upwards, perhaps defeating a Russian army instead of pushing it backwards.  On the other hand, if the Japanese losses had been significantly higher, their army might have run out of steam much sooner and before the Russians had decided that the war was lost.  Total Japanese defeat would then become very possible.

A different possibility comes from the Russian retreat and subsequent build-up at Mukden.  The Tsar pushed the Russian commanders into several small offensives against the Japanese positions, which failed, although a few alarmed the Japanese.  What if one of them had succeeded?  The destruction of a Japanese army would keep the Russians in the war longer, which would probably mean a draw or a Russian victory.

Related to that change, what if the Japanese managed to wipe out a major Russian force?  That’s actually more likely than a Russian victory, as the Japanese were far better at manoeuvring and the Russians lacklustre at best.  If a large Russian force was to be wiped out for nothing, it makes the position of the Tsar far more precarious.  He may sack the Russian commander earlier than OTL, which places a real moron instead of a pragmatist in command.

One reason that the Russians gave up in 1905 was the outbreak of revolution in Russia, fuelled by the reports of Russian disaster in Manchuria and the massive shortage of food as rolling stock went east.  In OTL, those revolts were quickly suppressed by granting the Duma a few concessions and massive violence.  What if there had been a prolonged period of disturbance?  Nationalists in the recently conquered parts of the empire and Poland might see a chance to regain independence.  Germany and Austria-Hungary might take the territory that Germany took in 1917.  Japan might take more territory than OTL.

As I’ve noted before, world wide war seemed a distinct possibility at several points, but the worst of them all was the Dogger Bank incident.  The Russians had sent a fleet on the long voyage round the world to Japan.  En route, the Russians mistook a British fishing fleet for Japanese torpedo boats and opened fire.  After much argument, the Russians apologized, but they were basically unrepentant.  The British public demanded war, so what might have happened if they had declared war on Russia?  The British fleet would have had no difficulty sinking the Russian fleet and adding extra support to Japan, but the Russians would almost certainly pressure the French into joining the war.  In which case, the Japanese would have to fight the French ships in the Far East (of which there were only a few) and the British would end up fighting their home fleet.  On the naval front, however, the war would go to the British and Japanese.  However, what about the army side of things?  Britain is not a great land power and there are few points where the small British forces would be decisive.  They would probably send a division or two to support the Japanese in Manchuria, while attacking French colonies.  This would present its own problems, as the French had powerful colonial forces and there would be serious havoc.  The longer the war went on, the stronger the Russians would become in Manchuria and there would be problems across the British Empire.  The Boers, for example, might consider ‘renegotiating’ the peace treaty from 1900.

The best solution the British could find would be to make a deal with the other European powers, Germany and Austria-Hungary.  That would give their alliance the muscle to stand up to the Franco-Russian alliance.  Imagine WW1 with the British on the German side.  It is highly unlikely that the French could have defeated such a combination, which would let them get hammered by the Germans, then the Germans would carve themselves an empire out of the Ukraine and Byelorussia.  The problem, for the Japanese, would be hanging on in Manchuria until the Russians collapsed.

One of the most interesting possibilities from the war, although not directly related to the outcome, was the life of a brave cavalry officer named Carl Gustav Mannerheim.  Mannerheim, as we know, survived the war with distinctions, served the Russians on the Eastern Front in 1914, returned to Finland and commanded the White Guard in the brief Finnish Civil War – and led his nation to survival in the Winter War (1939-40).  What might have happened if Mannerheim had not survived the war?  There were no other military leaders of his calibre in Finland in 1919, let alone 1939.  The Finnish Civil War might have gone on long enough for the Red Army to re-enter in 1920, or perhaps allowed the Russians to defeat the Finns in the Winter War.

The final possibility from the war is financial.  The Russians refused to pay Japan anything after the war.  Suppose the Russians were less tight-fisted or needed to end the war quickly – a longer period of disturbance might do it – and decided to pay Japan.  Would the money help expand the Japanese system?  Make it more stable?

To conclude this article, I hope I’ve illustrated just how vital the Russo-Japanese war was to history.  A Russian victory would have serious effects on the balance of power, as they would gain such predominance in North China and Korea that they would be very tempted to go for all the marbles and occupy China, perhaps with the support of the French and Germans.

Further, the Russians used the shock of their defeat in OTL as an excuse to clean house, sack some of the more incompetent officers and improve their army.  That the army was unable to survive a long war has obscured the fact that the Russian army of 1914 was an order of magnitude stronger, better equipped and commanded than the Russian army of 1904.  Had that army collapsed in 1914, we would all be speaking German today, as the Germans would have had time to defeat France before the Russians could get mobilised and invade East Prussia.

The Russo-Japanese war was a small war involving only two powers directly.  It was, however, one of the most important wars in history.  Go figure.

*      *      *

Chris Nuttall blogs at The Chrishanger and has a website by the same name. His books can be found on Amazon Kindle.