From Enigma to Paradox Revisited

Guest post by Tyler “tbguy1992” Bugg.

Four years ago, I was one of six writer’s chosen to appear in Substitution Cipher, an alternate history anthology that focused more on espionage and spies than soldiers and battles, and how those that work in the shadows can change history as much as a king or a general. I only got that chance thanks to the Alternate History Weekly Update, who posted about the anthology when it was still accepting sub-missions, and allowed me to publish my first work, and then reviewed it and gave away a free copy of the anthology.

My story, “From Enigma to Paradox,” turned World War Two onto it’s head by allowing Nazi Germany to uncover that their “unbreakable” Enigma code was broken by the Polish and British, and used the information to their advantage.

“From Enigma to Paradox” is still my favourite short story I’ve written, and not only because it was printed in a book that I could hold and read over and over again, but because I had the chance to research and hypothesize a rather unique Nazi Wins World War Two Scenario. However, with the bene-fit of hindsight, I do realize there are some issues with the original story I didn’t touch on, glossed over, or ignored. So maybe it’s time now to look back at some of those points, and talk about it here, on the website that got me my big break.

Also, I will say it now: there are spoilers ahead. If you don’t want to find out what actually happened in my story until you read it, go find the e-book or the paperback on Amazon right now, and come back after you’ve read it. Otherwise, here we go!

The point of divergence in my story is that a convoy of the secret materials, along with a copy of the Enigma machine, was captured by the Nazi’s during the invasion of France in May and June 1940, and the German intelligence agency, the Abwehr, quickly discovered from the information revealed that the codes had been, if not quite broken, at least were mostly readable thanks to a Polish agent in 1932 getting their hands on the original device and code books. The Poles had already given all their knowledge about Enigma to the British, who, operating at Bletchley Park, were already working on breaking the Enigma code, a process they called Ultra.

This was a major part of the story: the discovery that the British were, if not reading the full messages, could figure out most of the messages, allowed the Germans to give false information to the British, which resulted in a destruction of the RAF in the Battle of Britain. With RAF Fighter Command barely holding on through most of long months from July to October 1940 in our history, this was what broke the camels back. This is very similar to what the Allies did to try to trick the Germans, which they did regarding the Invasion of Sicily, D-Day, and many other smaller events through the war. This time, I just flipped it on it’s head, and had the Germans doing the tricking, Operation Paradox in my story.

With four years of further research and knowledge, I realize that this would have been a huge stretch. For one thing, despite the brilliant combined arms attacks that paired Panzers, motorized infantry and close support aircraft on the battlefield, the high command, from the heads of the Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine, Heer, the OKW, the SS, and a dozen other military and intelligence functions were at odds. While this isn’t uncommon in most nations (consider the rivalry of the US Army, Navy, and Air Force, as a start) it wasn’t helped by Hitler’s determined efforts to ensure that all the major departments would be fighting and squabbling with each other to ensure they would be reliant on him alone to solve any issues that would come up. I did mention that the ruse fell apart, but by then the battle with England was already virtually won, so the effect wasn’t totally detrimental to the Nazi’s. However, with hindsight, I’d think that maybe the deception would have unraveled quicker, and it would have allowed the British to recover, even if they knew they couldn’t trust Enigma again.

What happened next was Operation Sea Lion, the invasion of England. With the RAF destroyed, the Nazi’s actually did try to cross the English Channel. In my story I only said that air superiority and the U-boats allowed the invasion to proceed, especially after a mad dash by the Royal Navy to destroy the invasion was mostly halted by the Luftwaffe. While there are many cases in World War Two of airplanes being superior to ships (the sinking of the Bismarck, Pearl Harbor, and the entire Pacific Campaign come to mind), the Royal Navy was still the master of the seas, especially the North Sea and the Channel. If anything, the invasion would have to be put off even longer, until the U-boats, Luftwaffe and naval building program that built the Bismarck, Tripitz and other ships were finished. This would mean a full year or two before Sea Lion could have begun, but by then Hitler’s attention would have been drawn elsewhere: i.e., the Soviet Union. And in that time, the Luftwaffe would have to be still bombing England, keeping the RAF down, and trying to hamper the British Army as it was rebuilt, slowly and painfully. But a year is a long time in a total war, and the British were not going to give up that easily, especially with Winston Churchill in charge.

This brings up the paradox of World War Two, at least for Germany: Germany knew, from a long, bloody history, that they couldn’t fight a two front war. They did it in World War One, and lost. They were doing their best in World War Two to not do it, but if anything Hitler allowed himself to be dragged into not only two fronts (West vs. Britain, the US, Canada and other nations, and east against the Soviet Union), but also a third (North Africa), forth (Scandinavia), fifth (Balkans), sixth (the Atlantic Ocean), seventh (the Holocaust), and eighth (occupied countries) front. So, if Hitler wanted to win, he had to focus on one front, or at least the one that would have posed the biggest threat to him in the long run, which was Great Britain. From there, eventually the British Empire and the US, if it ever entered the war, would be able to try to force a crossing back to the Continent. If the UK wasn’t there, and the British had to fight from Canada or India, then returning to the British Isles was only going to happen after a long brutal battle, or the negotiating table.

But here’s the other part of the Paradox I mentioned: Germany was in no shape to attack Britain. This is something that Alternate Historians have agreed on for years, that Operation Sea Lion was a non-starter, and would have most likely failed within weeks of starting. But Britain couldn’t be bombed into submission. They could be starved with the U-boats, but that was a long and uncertain battle. Hitler wanted immediate results, and after the success in invading Poland, the Low Countries, Norway and France, he was used to them. An invasion of Britain would have failed though, shattering the Nazi war machine, and possibly give Stalin ideas to invade west...but that’s another story.

So, is my story plausible? To a degree, yes. The Nazi’s could have found out about the breaking of Enigma, and eventually replaced it, rendering the British cryptanalytic unit useless for months, if not years as they tried to solve the new one. But would it have been able to win the Battle of Britain? If used right, a broken code is almost as useful as an airtight one, but it’s hard to see how it could have worked for anything approaching the Allied deception plans.

And Sea Lion? Maybe if I had the invasion in 1941, but by then the British would have been able to rebuild, rearm and prepare for the attack, while destroying the Luftwaffe piecemeal, and throwing off Hitler’s other plans to invade the USSR. And even then, it’s uncertain if the Germans could have smashed across to a heavily fortified island without a strong navy to help.

So, I give my own “From Enigma to Paradox” a somewhat plausible rating, but even now, I can see that it most likely would not have worked out in the long run.

I’d like to thank Matt and the AHWU for allowing me to write for them several years ago on different topics, and for promoting my new blog, (Alt)History Inc. And, of course, for bringing Substitution Cipher to my attention over four years ago, covering the story, the interview and review, and everything else.

Happy Birthday Weekly Update! And here’s to another five years of history twisting, fictionalizing the past and reimagining yesteryear!

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Tyler "tbguy1992" Bugg recently received a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Winnipeg in History and English, and now he tries his best to use both, writing for a small town newspaper and writing his own blog, (Alt)History Inc, and procrastinating by playing Civilization, Fallout and other video games. You can find him on Twitter @tbguy1992.

Interview: Tyler Bugg

I now present my interview with friend of the blog and new author Tyler "Tbguy1992" Bugg:

Can you tell us a bit about yourself?

Well, not to much to say. Grew up on a cattle farm about 30 minutes north of the North Dakota border in Manitoba, Canada, and am currently attending the University of Winnipeg in my third year for a History degree. Was always interested in history as a kid, and perhaps that started when I was in Grade 3 and found a book on the Titanic: scared me senseless, my overactive imagination deciding to pretend I was on the boat that night after I read it, but it has stuck with me since then. Ask me anything about the Titanic, and I'm sure I can give you the answer.

I'm also a big PC gamer, playing such classics as Civilization and Command and Conquer (both of which can be considered AH to some degree), and I've recently been getting into the Fallout series, mostly because of the wonderful story rooted in a 50s-esque nuclear wasteland. Would love to get the chance to write for a video game... especially an Alternate History video game. Set in CANADA!

Oh, and I like hats. Big, fancy hats.

What got you interested in alternate history?

A trip to the local library, oddly enough. Wandering through the small building, I happened to notice a book with the US Capitol building in ruins and burning, with Confederate-flag carrying soldiers around it. I had found Harry Turtledove's Great War: American Front. I read that, and was hooked. A few months after that, I found the Alternate History Wikia online, and the rest is pretty much history.

I had a similar start to my alternate history obsession, except it was Worldwar: In the Balance by Harry Turtledove and it was the cover with Churchill and Hitler standing behind a piece of alien weaponry. Is Turtledove your favorite author?

Yes, I would have to say so. I'm not sure if its just because he was the first AH writer I was introduced to, or if its more because I really enjoy his stories and the entire timelines he creates. The only author I would name as a favorite, as in I have read most of his work, would be Tom Clancy, who does seem to have gone from a secret history in his Jack Ryan novels to an alternate history, not to mention the realistic and plausible World War Three scenario Red Storm Rising. I should find that book again...

How would you describe the Alternate History Wikia to someone who has never been there?

Its like Wikipedia, only with no need to cite your ideas and sources, and the excuse to make up anything you want. And believe me, people have made up whatever they want.  Just some things make more sense than others. I also believe that the AHWikia is a lower step than alternatehistory.com, because when you post on the Wikia, it seems that you usually don't get much feedback except if you ask for it. Its an unwritten rule on the forums that they will poke as many holes as possible into the idea, and any future posts related to that idea as possible. I'm sure, had I started posting my timelines on the AH Forum, I would have easily become dissuaded and gave up on the idea. There ya go! Alternate History on Alternate History!

What is "From Enigma to Paradox" about?

Very simply, its what happens if your most prized "secret weapon" falls into the enemies hands. In this case, its the Germany discovery of the Allies secret "Ultra" operation, the massive project to break the "unbreakable" German Enigma code, and how this will play into the future of the Second World War. The primary result is the "Unmentionable Sea Mammal" (thanks alternatehistory.com!) actually taking place, after a deceitful counter-counter intelligence operation which allowed the Luftwaffe to gain the upper hand in the Battle of Britain. Of course, the story doesn't end there, but I don't want to give away the end... yet.

What inspired you to write the story?

I guess the main thing was a book I found, written by Anthony Cave Brown, called Bodyguard of Lies. It was written in 1975, as the first wave of wartime documents were declassified in the United States and the UK, which showed exactly how massive, and at times improbable and insane ideas that the Allies put together to fight the intelligence war with Germany, especially the story of how Enigma was cracked. So, taking the story of Enigma, and then the famous "Operation Bodyguard" that deceived Germans to the true location, time and direction of the D-Day landings, I wrote a German variation, where the Nazi intelligence services work to deceive the British through the most vital stages of the Battle of Britain. Plus, I always was a fan of a Tom Clancy-esque spy caper, even if I didn't understand half the techno mumble-jumbo he throws in, so I wanted to try that.

What sources were particularly helpful when researching for your story?

Most of the idea for the story, and the knowledge of Enigma, came through Bodyguard of Lies. For other parts, it was mostly the background knowledge of World War II, including William Shrier's The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich and Inside the Third Reich by Albert Speer, for information of the organization of the Nazi war machine, as well as The World War Two Desk Reference by Douglas Brinkley for tidbits and ideas for future research to flesh out the story.

And, I will shamelessly admit, Wikipedia.

Is this your first published story?

Yes, and I thank Candlemark and Gleam for the chance to be published! Also, (knock on wood), this isn't my only story to be published...

So you have been a fan of alternate history roughly 4 years and are already a published author in the genre, with a review in Publisher's Weekly and you are still in college. Wow. Any comment on that?

I...really don't know what to say, to be honest. I can't believe all of this has happened to the procrastinating, know-it-all, allergic-to-everything farm boy from the middle of nowhere, Canada. I try not to think of it too much, frankly, because then I get nervous that this run of good luck is going to crash and burn.

Then again, it shows anyone what they can do when they put their mind to it.

Do you have any other projects you are working on?

Oh, I always have Alternate History ideas: just open any history book! However, school is more important at the moment, but my Creative Writing class is helping flesh out and develop stories I otherwise would have put on hold. My timelines, like French Trafalgar, British Waterloo on the Alternate History Wikia is always being added to, but otherwise not much ready to be shipped out.

I do hope to have a larger novel(la) completed by the end of the school year, but time will tell how well that works out.

Do you plan to write fiction in your French Trafalgar, British Waterloo timeline?

I've always been back and forth on this idea. Sometimes, I think it would be cool to try to write a short story, or even a novel or two, based on events and outcomes from something I've already created. However, other times, I don't want to go into any further depth to the story than the God like, third person, "Wikipedia-esque" historical depth I already have invested in it. I may take ideas from it from time to time, but I highly doubt I will ever get around to making a larger story centered on FTBW. Too many other ideas I want to explore than to stick in the same place that already feels fairly well done in my opinion.

What are you reading now?

I actually just picked up Coup d'Etat, Harry Turtledove's new novel [Editor's Note: Fourth volume in the series began by Hitler's War]. Beside it, I have The Company of the Dead (which I got because A) its Titanic, and B) I read about it here on AHWU) Also have Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, but I'm taking that one slow. So many other books I have bought, but haven't opened yet!

Do you have advice for would-be authors?

Normally, this would be the part where the author would say "just keep writing!" However, I'm going a different path this time: something my Creative Writing professor, published Canadian author Margret Sweatman, told us: read! Ideally, you should actually be reading for both research and pleasure almost as much as you write. I take this particular idea to heart, if for no other reason that it gives me an excuse to read books when I'm procrastinating other things. And, don't be afraid to take ideas from other places. After all, every story has been told: its the writers job to retell that story in a new, interesting light, and Alternate History especially fits that role.

Review: Substitution Cipher edited by Kaye Chazan

I've said it before and I will say it again: us alternate historians are a wordy bunch. We are so excited to show off the world we built that we neglect the story. That is probably why non-genre authors do so well in the Sidewise Awards. They do not have the same bad habits we do.

That is why I have gained a great appreciation for the art of short fiction. It forces the author to exorcise text blocks full of backstory and get to what really matters. If it is alternate history, we learn what is different not from the author narrating on high, but from the characters as they work through the drama of their lives. So I was very excited to get a copy of Substitution Cipher edited by Kaye Chazan. Some of you might remember that I covered the creation of this alternate history/spy thriller anthology from Candlemark & Gleam early on. Now after a year of waiting I finally got a chance to read it.

Let's start from the beginning. The first story is "So the Taino Call It" by M. Fenn. It tells the tale of a Portuguese spy as he tries to sabotage Columbus expedition to the New World. It reads like the plot of Avatar, but that is not meant to be a criticism since it is a lot more believable than the film (it makes perfect economic sense to travel to another solar system, dig something out of the ground and bring it back). It is formatted as a diary, which you will see more than once in this anthology.

"Sphere of Influence" by Rebecca Rozakis is a cloak and dagger adventure in a moving Venice that steampunk fans will enjoy. To avoid a diplomatic incident, a Venetian agent helps recover a gift that was supposed to be delivered to the ruler of Austria. I enjoyed reading about strong female characters matching wits in a clockwork world and I think you will too.

"From Enigma to Paradox" by Tyler Bugg...have I heard that name before? Of course, he wrote the non-fiction articles The Maple Leaf (Not Quite) Forever: Canada in Alternate History and Rearranging the Deck Chairs and Changing the Course: Titanic Alternate Histories From the Writers Point of View, plus the short story Four Famous Pictures And How They Are Interconnected. So how did this Weekly Update alum's first foray into published fiction hold up?

The story follows a German intelligence agent stumbling upon the knowledge that the Allies have cracked the Enigma machine (the Enigma machine also made an appearance in Fatherland by Robert Harris, the book not the film), but he has come up with a plan to use it against the them. The story starts off like another Nazis win TL, until Tyler takes it in a completely different direction, like any good writer would. All and all, it was an enjoyable read and I look forward to reading more from Tyler.

I wish I could say the same about "In God We Trust" by G. Miki Hayden. The story suffers from its completely implausible alternate history. The United States is predominantly Muslim and gender equality happened in the 18th century. President Eleanor Roosevelt reflects this was likely because the Louisiana Purchase fell through, but it is mentioned that a women served on Washington's cabinet, which would put the POD farther in the past, and America controls Little Rock, Arkansas. What?

Then there is the United Tribes, an ambiguously sized Native American state that has VTOL aircraft (something ATL Americans do not have) and the ability to regrow amputated limbs (something OTL Americans do not have), but are amazed by such American inventions as synthetic fiber and soda pop. Add a space-filling Japanese Empire, a French Mexico and tons of historical characters who haven't changed despite the centuries old POD and you get an alternate history that is contradictory and confusing. I like weird history, but this one will be a difficult read for hardcore plausibility hounds.

Things got back on track with "Something There Is" by C.D. Covington. As the Soviets prepare to build a wall in Berlin, a young girl discovers she has a mysterious connection to her city that the secret police want to exploit. I truly felt for the main character, I know the powerful pull the love of home can be. This story also can be viewed as a different take on the superhero genre. Why do characters as invincible as Superman or with mandates to police dozens of star systems like Green Lantern, operate out of just one city? Do cities consciously choose certain individuals to be their guardians in times of crisis?

The anthology rounds off "The Ashkenazi Candidate" by Kaye Chazan, who is also the editor. An alternate Cold War finds a fascist Britain and socialist (or perhaps communist) United States preparing for mutually assured destruction. To prevent this, the United States has sent one of their best deep cover agents into the heart of MI6. Getting him out, however, could be a problem. This was a good, solid story to end the anthology and I like how Kaye subverted the Bond girl trope (but probably not in the way you would expect).

Except for "In God We Trust", I can recommend all of the stories in Substitution Cipher. You will get your chance to read the anthology on December 18. In the meantime, stay tuned for an interview with newly minted author Tyler Bugg.

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Matt Mitrovich is a long-time fan of alternate history, founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update and a volunteer editor for Alt Hist magazine. His fiction can be found at Echelon Press, Jake's Monthly and The Masquerade Crew. When not writing he works as an attorney, enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana and prepares for the inevitable zombie apocalypse. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter.

Weekly Update #67

Editor's Note

I apologize too often in these editorials, so instead of giving another excuse as to why I did not post the articles I promised, I am going to ask a simple question: who the hell found this blog by searching in Google for "german soldiers having sex with allies"? What exactly were you looking for? Don't be bashful, I won't judge.

Okay, onto the (probable) schedule for this week. This afternoon Seb returns with a guest review about elves in World War II. Tuesday, I give you the new releases of last week and the Art of Steampunk. Wednesday and Thursday I have articles discussing upcoming Retro-SF, new trailers for fall shows and thoughts about getting your alternate history published in today's market. I plan to finish it off by publishing my review of The Kronos Interference.

Got our first reader from Armenia, welcome!

And now the news...

Alternate History of Sherlock Holmes

The world's greatest detective is a popular character in alternate history. I'm not talking about Batman, although he pops up from time to time in the multiverse. I'm talking about Sherlock Holmes. Besides making cameo appearances in League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and Anno Dracula, you can find Holmes popping up in some new publications which pit his brilliant mind against fiction's greatest villains.

First you should check recently released Sherlock Holmes: The Army of Dr. Moreau by Guy Adams. The plot revolves around a vicious murder which might be connected to the bizarre experiments of an exiled mad doctor. Recently given a good review at Fantasy Matters, Guy Adams actually sat down to talk with Fantasy Matters' Mark Schelske where he made an interesting point about Holmes' famous sidekick Watson: "Holmes could not progress without Watson--his friendship with the good doctor is the catalyst for change that he needed. Who knows what he would have become without him? They are two halves of one perfect whole." Good point, Guy. Often the hero eclipses the role the supporting characters play and there are a fair few mysteries Holmes would have failed to decipher without the help of the good doctor.

Want more fictional villains for Holmes and Watson to face off against? How about Count Dracula and Cthulu? Cindy Spencer Pape reviewed Christian Klaver dark, gaslight fantasies The Supernatural Casefiles of Sherlock Holmes. Pape praised both of Klaver's novels and said "[he] is definitely an upcoming author to watch."

If there are any other fictional mash-ups out there where Holmes appears in, please let us know in the comment section.

Update: Tyler Bugg

Friend of the blog Tyler Bugg (see his article on how Canada is portrayed in alternate history) informed me that the cover and date of publication of Substitution Cipher has been revealed.  To be published by Candlemark & Gleam on December 18 (easy date for me to remember, it is my wedding anniversary), the anthology will feature stories of espionage set in alternate worlds and includes Tyler's short story “From Enigma to Paradox”. Tyler was kind enough to secure me a review copy of the anthology, so expect a review likely by the start of 2013, because I plan to take a vacation from the blog in the end of December. I also hope to interview Tyler before the publication of his story, so stay tuned for that as well.

World Fantasy Award Finalists Announced

The finalists for the World Fantasy Award have been announced and there are several works of alternate history and steampunk represented. The best novel category included 11/22/63 by Stephen King and Osama by Lavie Tidhar. "Rose Street Attractors" by Lucius Shepard, featured in Ghosts by Gaslight also got a nomination for the best novella. Jeff and Ann VanderMeer, well-known editors in the steampunk genre, also got several nominations in different categories. Congrats to all of the finalists and we look forward to hearing about the winner at the World Fantasy Convention in Toronto from Nov 1-4.

Links to the Multiverse

Articles

Eiffel Tower in London? by Jordan Harbour at Twilight Histories.

The Great ‘What If’. What if Edward Bruce had succeeded in Ireland? by Arthur Russell at English Historical Fiction Writers.

Is It Finally Time to Let the South Secede? by Joshua Holland at AlterNet.

STEAMFUNK MAD SCIENTISTS & MECHANICS: Black Inventors of the Steam Age! at Chronicles of Harriet.

Books

Alternate History Serial “Balance of Powers” Launches by Brandie Minchew at ARGNet.

Book Review - Castro's Bomb by Robert Conroy done by Blaine Pardoe at Notes From The Bunker.

Flying High with Wild Cards by George R.R. Martin at Not A Blog.

Review of Anno Dracula by Kim Newman done by Kari at the Harvard Book Store.

Review: The secrets of The Other Log of Phileas Fogg by CB Droege by TG Daily.

Games

Dishonored steampunk clip is flexible combat

 by Trent Nouveau at TG Daily.

Guns of Icarus Online - Steampunk Takes To The Skies by Adam Rosenberg at G4.

Media

30 Coolest Alternative Book Covers at Short List.

The Art Of The Passive-Aggressive Redesign by Russell Brandom at Buzz Feed.

Mythological beasts, drawn in the style of old biology textbooks by Cyriaque Lamar at io9.

Music

"Iron Sky" Trailer Music That Isn't In The Movie... by Matthew Quinn at The World According to Quinn.

Podcasts

Imperial Trouble Episode 86: Doctor Q.

The SF Signal Podcast (Episode 141): Cherie Priest, Jay Lake, Gail Carriger, Paul Di Fillipo, Phillipa Ballantine and Tee Morris Talk Steampunk.

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Matt Mitrovich is the founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update, a volunteer editor for Alt Hist and a contributor to Just Below the Law. His fiction can be found at Echelon Press, Jake's Monthly and his own writing blog. When not writing he works as an attorney and enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana.