Killing the Past: Can Assassins Change the Course of History?

On April 14, 1865, President Abraham Lincoln was shot by John Wilkes Booth and died the next day. Roughly 150 years later, Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken published an opinion piece in The New York Times asking whether assassins really can change the course of history. The two academics looked at data from both successful and failed assassination attempts from 1875 to 2004 and discovered that while assassinations do have a better chance of causing significant change in autocracies, robust democracies on the other hand are better able to survive the death of their leader. If this is true, suddenly The Interview is a much smarter movie than anyone realized.

Although the article was not alternate history, plenty of alternate and counterfactual historians jumped on the findings. And why not? As Evelyn Leeper pointed out in 2001, alternate histories focusing the assassination of JFK remain one of the most popular topics in alternate history. Both Stuart Schneiderman and Gavriel Rosenfeld commented on the article and while they both approached it from different directions, they generally reaffirmed the power of human agency while criticizing the study for not considering the changes caused if someone survives their assassination (like Lincoln or JFK).

What do I think about the power of assassins to change history? I am going to give a very lawyer answer and say: it depends. For alternate history, it certainly matters. The untimely death of powerful men and women (whether by assassins or other causes) is one of primary means of creating a point of divergence and without it we wouldn't have some of our most influential works (i.e. The Man in the High Castle and "For All Time"). Human agency, however, matters in alternate history because the story needs it to matter. Alternate history has always leaned toward the "rule of cool" thus we often stretch the limits of plausibility so we can tell the story we want to tell.

For counterfactual history, however, things get a little more complicated. Changing the actors on the stage doesn't necessarily change the outcome of the story. For example, assassinating Lincoln in 1861 when the American Civil War was just beginning won't provide the Confederacy with the strategic thinkers, industry, railroads or manpower it would have needed to defeat the Union. Thus the Confederacy still loses the war, but Lincoln's successors (Hannibal Hamlin and whoever comes next) could make enough different decisions during and after the war that in the long-term we may see a vastly different present from the one we inhabit now.

Honestly whether you believe assassins can change the course of history is really a matter of opinion. If you believe in the power of human agency, then yes killing a world leader would create a vastly different history from the one where he or she is still alive. If you believe in the ultimate power of the intangible forces governing history, than no, killing a world leader only changes the names we write in the history books, but not the actual outcome of history. The weakness to both sides, however, is that we will never know for sure. Until someone invents a time machine that allows us the spin off new timelines for study, we are stuck with the history we know, along with the same hypothetical questions on who would you kill/save if you could travel through time.

Which brings me to my final point, I generally find arguing whether killing/saving someone of importance in the past will make a "better" world, is pointless. There are just so many variables it is nearly impossible to predict what may happen and, if Jones and Olken are to be believed, the chance that nothing will happen if your target is the leader of a democracy is rather good.

To sum up: its fun to speculate whether an assassin can change history, but whether they actually do is still up for debate.

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Matt Mitrovich is the founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update and a blogger on Amazing Stories. Check out his short fiction. When not writing he works as an attorney, enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana and prepares for the inevitable zombie apocalypse. You can follow him on Facebook or Twitter.

Breaking News: Stephen L. Carter reads from "The Impeachment of Abraham Lincoln: A Novel"

Tomorrow at 7 pm at the Harvard Book Store (1256 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138) Stephen L. Carter will read from his new alternate history novel The Impeachment of Abraham Lincoln. Here is a description of the novel from the Store's official site:

President Abraham Lincoln survives the assassination attempt at Ford’s Theatre on April 14, 1865. Two years later he is charged with overstepping his constitutional authority, both during and after the Civil War, and faces an impeachment trial . . .

Twenty-one-year-old Abigail Canner is a young black woman with a degree from Oberlin, a letter of employment from the law firm that has undertaken Lincoln’s defense, and the iron-strong conviction, learned from her late mother, that “whatever limitations society might place on ordinary negroes, they would never apply to her.” And so Abigail embarks on a life that defies the norms of every stratum of Washington society: working side by side with a white clerk, meeting the great and powerful of the nation, including the president himself.  But when Lincoln’s lead counsel is found brutally murdered on the eve of the trial, Abigail is plunged into a treacherous web of intrigue and conspiracy reaching the highest levels of the divided government.

Here is a vividly imagined work of historical fiction that captures the emotional tenor of post–Civil War America, a brilliantly realized courtroom drama that explores the always contentious question of the nature of presidential authority, and a galvanizing story of political suspense.

The event is free and if anyone attends the reading, please let us know how it went.

Review: Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter

Grade: A-

What was brilliant about The Zombie Survival Guide by Max Brooks was how serious he took the subject of preparing for the inevitable zombie apocalypse.  He did not stop every other page to remind us that "zombies are not real", he left that to the CDC.  Instead he gave honest advice on how to deal with attacks by the undead.  This tongue-in-cheek humor turned the Guide into a hit, launched another novel, a comic book, collectibles and a movie deal.

In the summer of 2012, one film embodies the entertainment value of the Guide.  In Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter, we begin by seeing the future American president, Abraham Lincoln, as a small boy.  After witnessing the murder of his mother by Jack Barts, young Abe vows revenge but his father makes him promise not to retaliate.  Eight year later, after his father dies, Abe decides to carry out his long-awaited revenge but is uprepared when he learns the truth about Barts: he is a vampire.  At the last second Abe is saved by an experienced vampire hunter, Henry Sturgess.

He explains that vampires have been infiltrating America since the beginning under the leadership of Adam, the father of all vampires in America.  Using the institution of slavery, vampires have managed to finally sate their blood lust by feeding off the slaves brought to work in the South.  The vampires, however, are starting to expand north and Sturgess needs disciples to fight them.  Abe pleads with Sturgess to train him how to fight, but only after Sturgess makes him promise to fight vampires on his terms and not carry out his own revenge schemes.  

After his training is complete, Lincoln moves to Springfield, IL where he gets a job working as a shopkeeper while studying the law.  This boring life is only a cover for his true mission: to eradicate the vampire presence in the town.  Lincoln comes to the realization, however, that it is not enough to behead one or two vampires.  As long as slavery exists in America, the vampire infestation will never disappear, so Lincoln breaks with his mentor to seek a career in politics.  He reaches for the White House to eradicate vampires once and for all...even if it means splitting the nation apart into a civil war.

Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter was a delightful film blending the best of a summer action flick with a unique horror element.  The best part, however, were the laughs.  People who know their 19th century American history will find plenty to chuckle about, even if the rest of the audience misses the joke completely.  I lost count how many times I burst out laughing to a virtually silent theater, though I was not embarrassed because their were a couple of voices joined with mine to express their mirth.  Nevertheless, knowledge of history can hurt your ability to enjoy film at times.  For example, the film seems to imply that Lincoln had only one child.  Facts like that are annoying to those who know Lincoln, but are likely missed by the general audience.

Though I have not read the novel by Seth Grahame-Smith that the film is based on, I have read his first mash-up novel, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.  Smith, who also wrote the screenplay of the film, managed to duplicate his tongue-in-cheek humor that so identifies his style of writing and translate it into a different medium.  The film stayed serious at all times.  I can see why Jeff Greenfield is worried that kids will grow up thinking one of the greatest American presidents spent his time in office fighting vampires.

Sadly the film has been poorly reviewed by critics (Ebert did give it a good review) and has had disappointing box office numbers.  Despite high audience ratings, Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter will likely be remembered as a flop.  Nevertheless, people who can embrace the absurd will find an enjoyable summer blockbuster and watch as the Great Emancipator is turned into the Dark Knight.  More importantly, you will regain your faith in vampire films after this.

GO ABE GO!

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Matt Mitrovich is the founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update, a volunteer editor for Alt Hist and a contributor to Just Below the Law. His fiction can be found at Echelon Press, Jake's Monthly and his own writing blog. When not writing he works as an attorney and enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana.

Weekly Update #60

Editor's Note

So this is the final week of double posting for me.  It has been an educational experience.  I never realized how easy it is to write when you really set your mind to it.  Plus it has been very rewarding.  We have already broke our monthly page view record and we just passed the 7000 barrier.  At this rate we should surpass 8000 page views by the end of the month.  Thanks!

The Mitro Media Empire has grown with the addition of my new writing blog.  With "A Perfect Hell on Earth" about the be published, I decided it was finally time to create that new blog I mentioned earlier in the month.  This new project serves the dual purpose of keeping my fans updated on my writing and gives me experience using WordPress, in case I decide to transfer Weekly Update to that engine.

Got some great stuff coming this week.  We have New Releases and I preview the newest book I am reading.  Chris Nuttall returns with his rebuttal in "Musing on an Independent Confederacy, Part 3".  There are bunch of reviews and hopefully an interview with Robert G. Pielke, author of A New Birth of Freedom: The Visitor, posted this week as well.

And now the news...

Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter

Last week Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter premiered to theater audiences.  An action fantasy horror film based on the 2010 mashup novel of the same name, the film was directed and co-produced by Timur Bekmambetov, along with Tim Burton. The novel's author, Seth Grahame-Smith, wrote the adapted screenplay. Though more secret history than alternate history, the film follows Abraham Lincoln, the 16th President of the United States (1861–1865), and the double-life he leads as a vampire hunter. Filming began in Louisiana in March 2011 and the film was released in 3D on June 20, 2012 in the United Kingdom and June 22, 2012 in the United States.

Reviews of the film have been mixed.  Charlie Jane Anders at io9 said "Anyone who wants to see quite how wrong and pointless vampire stories can get should definitely rent Abraham Lincoln at some point."  Tough criticism, but Anders' opinion seems to be in the majority among critics.  The film only has a 37% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.  Ouch.

There have, however, been some positive reviews.  Derrick Bang on his blog said "Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Killer (sic) may be pulp nonsense, but it’s a lot of fun nonetheless."  Friend of Weekly Update Sean Korsgaard said the film was "solid and entertaining...for anyone who can say the title without sneering."  Meanwhile, film audience have rated the film higher then critics on Rotten Tomatoes, giving the film a 75%.

So what is my recommendation?  Stay tuned later this week when I write my own detailed review of the film.

Get your Punk on!

Steampunk aficionados have some upcoming events to look forward to.  The Airship at Vapor Station, a steampunk musical, is playing in Nashville, TN until June 30th.  Follow a young woman as she goes on an adventure set in a world where silk is in high demand, children start work at the age of 12 and a group called "The Quorum" makes all the laws.

Go a little farther east and you will find the Macon County Library in Franklin.  They are holding a Steampunk Jewelry & Creations Workshop on June 28th from 5 to 8 pm.

Have fun!

Links to the Multiverse

Articles

5 Famous People Who Secretly Had Awesome Second Careers by Evan V. Symon at Cracked.

Niall Ferguson: admirable historian, or imperial mischief maker? by Jeevan Vasagar at The Guardian.

Two hundred years ago today, Sergeant Pepper taught the boys to play… by Ian C. Racey.

Victorianism Without Victoria: On Mexican Steampunk by Hodson at Racialicious.

Westernpunk by Maeve Alpin at Steamed!

Interviews

Cherie Priest at Indy Week.

Ian Tregillis at Orbit.

Books

Review of Carpathia by Matt Forbeck done by Billzilla at Flames Rising.

Review of Dies the Fire by S.M. Stirling done by Post Apocalyptic – Books, Movies, Television.

Review of The Houdini Spectre by Daniel Stashower done by Marleen at More Than a Reading Journal.

Review of Leviathan by Scott Westerfeld done by Matt Heckler at Android Dreamer.

Television

Here’s one way televised SF can kick the police procedural habit by Brad Rowe at Cape Breton Post.

Video Games

ARGO Online: Introducing a new arena system at Gamasutra.

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Matt Mitrovich is the founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update, a volunteer editor for Alt Hist and a contributor to Just Below the Law. His fiction can be found at Echelon Press, Jake's Monthly and his own writing blog. When not writing he works as an attorney and enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana.

Preview: "A New Birth of Freedom: The Visitor" by Robert G. Pielke

How do you get two warring factions to put aside their differences and unite against a common enemy?  If you are Harry Harrison, you get the British to attack the Confederates after going to war on their side to fight the Union.  If you are Harry Turtledove, you have aliens invade the Earth at the height of World War II.  Take the influences of both authors and you get A New Birth of Freedom: The Visitor by Robert G. Pielke, the first in a planned trilogy, with the last two books to be published by Whiskey Creek Press.  Here is the description from  Amazon:

It has taken centuries to recognize that all humans possess certain unalienable rights. There will come a time when we have to consider whether others deserve those rights as well. That time will come on July 3rd 1863. 

When a stranger carrying a shiny, metallic valise steps aboard a train carrying Abraham Lincoln home from a 2 year stint in Congress, everyone stares, wondering about the stranger's odd clothing and strange footwear with the word Nike emblazoned on them. 

When the strange man shows up in Lincoln's office at the White House 14 years later, still wearing the same clothes, carrying the same valise and looking not a day older, the president and his staff know something is odd. 

But when Edwin Blair opens his valise and projects a 3D image of the Earth on Lincoln's wall, then proceeds to tell a fanciful tale about time traveling aliens preparing to land at Gettysburg on July 3rd, they are sure they've met a lunatic.  

Unfortunately for them, they're wrong. 

Robert has been kind enough to send me a review copy to read. Though you will have to wait for my review next week, in the meantime you can check out reviews done by other critics.  Lynn McMonigal said that she "LOVED this book" and also liked the "attention to detail. Historical figures such as Abraham Lincoln and Robert E. Lee are described just as history books portray them."  Chew & Digest Books also complimented Pielke on how he portrayed historical figures saying "[w]hen Lincoln talks, it sounds like what I think Lincoln would say. When Robert E. Lee interacts with Blair, it feels real, not like total poppycock." Kirkus Reviews said that A New Birth of Freedom was "[a]n exciting, enticing first entry in a planned series."

One of the cons of the novel that a couple of the reviews agreed about was the presence of the sci-fi elements in the story.  Yet as alternate historians, a little ASB is unlikely to scare us away.  I look forward to reading and reviewing the story, so stay tuned.

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Matt Mitrovich is the founder and editor of Alternate History Weekly Update, a volunteer editor for the Alt Hist magazine and a contributor to Just Below the Law. One of his short stories will be published in the upcoming Echelon Press anthology, Once Upon a Clockwork Tale (2013). When not writing he works as an attorney in the state of Illinois and enjoys life with his beautiful wife Alana.