tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post8616018593194901893..comments2024-03-11T06:48:32.094-05:00Comments on Alternate History Weekly Update: 7 What Ifs About An Earlier WWIMitrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12415640801753049329noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-82338611534717593482015-09-01T11:28:54.801-05:002015-09-01T11:28:54.801-05:00An Anglo-French war over Fashoda in 1998 probably ...An Anglo-French war over Fashoda in 1998 probably wouldn't pull in the Russians. The Franco-Russian entente (still young at that point) was aimed at Germany and didn't apply to events outside Europe. The French had made it clear that they weren't going to fight the British over Russian claims in Asia, so the reverse applied to French claims in Africa.<br /><br />The Russians might take advantage of British distraction to advance their interests in the Far East, though, at the expense of China. An annexation of Mongolia (Outer and Inner), Chinese Turkistan and perhaps even Manchuria would be possible. The Japanese would be apprehensive about their interests in Korea and might jump the gun there, and might take a bite at vulnerable bits of the Chinese periphery; they'd already taken Taiwan, of course.<br /><br />It's conceivable but not likely that the Germans would take the opportunity to jump France; more probably they'd remain neutral and simply enjoy France's subsequent isolation and impotence.<br /><br />Japan wasn't strong enough to stop the Russians at that point, though an Anglo-Japanese alliance directed at Russia after the war is likely.<br /><br />Given the naval balance, the likely outcome of the Anglo-French war is a blockade of France possibly accompanied by the destruction of the French fleet, while the British systematically pick off the French colonial possessions (with the possible exception of Algeria, which had a large garrison) by switching their main forces from one to another. The French wouldn't be able to reinforce because of British sea-power. Salisbury might want a conciliatory peace, but public opinion (at the height of its jingo phase) probably wouldn't let him; Chamberlain would be riding high.<br /><br />(The prospect of this is why the French backed down at Fashoda, of course.)<br /><br />Overall likely outcome: Britain takes all the French colonies in Africa, possibly including Algeria but possibly not, and French Indochina and the various island outposts in the Caribbean and Polynesia. The Australians and New Zealanders would probably end up getting those, and might well supply the troops.<br /><br />Possibly the British would take the Congo Free State as well, because of a secret treaty (of which the British were aware) between Leopold and the French giving the French reversionary rights to the Congo. <br /><br />Siam/Thailand would now be sandwiched between British Malaysia/Burma and British Indochina, and might become a British possession, probably via some sort of protectorate treaty or "veiled protectorate" a la Egypt, with the Thai king still nominally in charge and a British Resident Advisor or some other figleaf.<br /><br />Russia makes large gains in Asia; France is resentful but isolated in Europe; post-War rivalry between Russia and the British Empire heats up. <br /><br />A possible German-Russian rapprochement, depending on whether the Anglo-German naval race comes off, is possible. <br /><br />OTOH it's also possible that Germany and Britain might become closer, to prevent a French resurgence. <br /><br />A possible basis for that might be a partition of Portugal's African territories, which was actually secretly discussed in OTL (Germany gets Angola and Britain gets Mozambique, essentially.)<br /><br />The next issues up would be the "Eastern Question" (partition of the declining Ottoman Empire) and a division of China. With France out of the equation in the Middle and Far East and China weak (something like the Boxer episode is due), both would be active matters of dispute and tension, and Germany would be sticking its spoon into the Near Eastern stewpot, with Japan a rising factor. <br /><br />The economic consequences might be interesting; would the Belle Epoque economic boom and world trade expansion be aborted? <br /><br />Probably the Conservatives and Liberal Imperialists are strengthened in Britain due to the victorious colonial war against the French. The British Empire now encompasses 2/3 of Africa and another big chunk of Asia, with the prospects of further gains if the Ottoman and Chinese states are carved up.S.M. Stirlinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18091131550027851275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-4323134383479320762015-09-01T11:03:51.359-05:002015-09-01T11:03:51.359-05:00More realistically, any Great War between 1905 and...More realistically, any Great War between 1905 and 1912 or so would probably result in a rapid German victory; the French army was in bad shape, the Russians hadn't recovered from the Russo-Japanese War, and certain technological developments crucial in 1914 (air reconaissance, in particular) hadn't come along yet.S.M. Stirlinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18091131550027851275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-3963707788864194052015-08-27T08:18:59.294-05:002015-08-27T08:18:59.294-05:00Here's one with an Eastern-only situation http...Here's one with an Eastern-only situation http://thisdayinalternatehistory.blogspot.com/2010/10/october-18-1912-serbia-refuses-to-yield.htmlThis Day in Alternate Historyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10126960997601177897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-84147067462435670272015-08-27T08:18:13.362-05:002015-08-27T08:18:13.362-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.This Day in Alternate Historyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10126960997601177897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-79541000901612401682015-08-27T04:28:24.867-05:002015-08-27T04:28:24.867-05:00I used the Agadir Incident as the war trigger. My...I used the Agadir Incident as the war trigger. My books don't exactly qualify for Alternate History because I also modify physics slightly creating a steampunk/dieselpunk setting.<br /><br />Premise: In 1843 Sir Michael Faraday demonstrates the partial nullification of gravity. Take up is initially slow but accelerates as efficiency improves.<br /><br />The arbitrary distinction between steampunk and dieselpunk is unrealistic because technological advances are not globally uniform (and never have been).<br />Adaddinsanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10577587188266580561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-90083614144593501412015-08-26T13:04:11.629-05:002015-08-26T13:04:11.629-05:00Funny you should say that since WWI is often seen ...Funny you should say that since WWI is often seen as the transition period for steampunk and dieselpunk works. Interesting to think about what those weapons would look like if they ran on internal combustion engines...Mitrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12415640801753049329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5080248961176338496.post-64044485585919082222015-08-26T11:03:41.820-05:002015-08-26T11:03:41.820-05:00excellent! Though my personal preference is for a...excellent! Though my personal preference is for a "later" start to WWI.<br />Why? because a longer build up might have led to some very interesting weapon systems: motorcycle borne cavalry; full body armor, true "landship" tanks, zeppelin aircraft carriers, giant mechanical steam men...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09471826558039976824noreply@blogger.com